Tuesday, April 08, 2008

They seek it here. They seek it there. They can't find that pesky excess heat anywhere

.

Could anyone who knows the whereabouts of a few zillion missing joules of anthropogenic global warming please contact the relevant world government lobbyists



It’s about ten years old, answers to the name of Impending Global Apocalypse and was last seen in a computer model


(edit: there's some quality linkage in the comments underneath this post btw)

.

24 comments:

jon doy said...

there's a link which can be used to tell the bbc that we're really jolly annoyed at them at the curious changes highlighted here

jon doy said...

probably worth being specific that you're aware that a) co2 climate change propaganda is about eventually taxing people for their existence and that b) the bbc will just lie first time, next time - assuming that is your view, of course

paul said...

Everybody seems to be getting a little confused, having discounted wind as part of the weather

Why don't we just call it climate change? After all polar bears roaming london are just as bad as dying of sunstroke

Stef said...

Everybody seems to be getting a little confused, having discounted wind as part of the weather

...and clouds

don't forget clouds

actually, no, do forget clouds

Stef said...

probably worth being specific that you're aware that ... co2 climate change propaganda is about eventually taxing people for their existence

You would have thought that a 500%+ increase in the dollar price of crude oil over the last 10 years (in spite of the fact that there is currently no real shortage of raw product) would qualify as a more than generous level of carbon taxation.

But it would appear not.

Rumour has it that some ordinary people can still afford trivial stuff like food, housing and transportation without signing up for a lifetime of debt-slavery. Ah well, nothing another fifty or hundred bucks on the price can't solve

jon doy said...

@Paul

great link, ta for that

@Stef

taxing people for their existence

ooh, i just thought of a name for it:

Human Added Tax or HAT

paul said...

One day its hot, next day its not

Stef said...

@jon/ paul (where's ringo?)

nice one(s)

paul said...

anywhere but Liverpool

Stef said...

hmmmmmm, synchro-tastic

Alex Fear said...

The BBC have been re-editing stories and changing headlines since they began their service, this is nothing new.

Seems that they got caught out this time- I like the fact that the article was changed to "better reflect the science".

Because, as you know, consensus is the new science.

Frank O'Dwyer said...

Stef,

R^2 = 0.07?

What does that tell you? This is a ten year trend and is too short to show anything meaningful.

It's interesting (well, to geeks) to generate some random data of the same form and see how the trends look.

For example, I generated some normally distributed data (std dev = 0.1) for 120 'years' of toy temperature anomaly data. Then I added a linear warming trend of about 0.02C per year. This is similar to the real data, except that the 0.02C/yr trend is recent and a little less in the real data.

It is very easy to find 7,8,9 and even 10 year 'cooling' trends in such data, even though in this case I know the data has a linear increase.

Stef said...

@Frank

You can also find yourself extrapolating the upside of a curve after it has reached a turning point and is about to start dropping.

It's a rubbish analogy but there are quite a few folk out there who are about to get reamed on the housing market after doing exactly that

I don't pretend to know if the underlying global temperatures rise is going to continue.

My gut feel is that it won't, based on nothing more than faith in the Earth's proven historical ability to self-equilibriate (and the fact that I haven't seen any evidence that convinces me we're pumping out enough C02 to shag that mechanism) but I admit that's not particularly scientific

What I do know for sure is that if last Winter had been as mild as it turned out to be cold the media would have been full of it. With no end of lobbyist spokespeople seeking to attach that mildness to MMGW

I also think it's fair to say that all man made warming inputs over the last ten years appear to have been countered and suppressed by natural variability, which indicates that even if there is such a thing as MMGW it has played 2nd fiddle to natural factors over that time

Frank O'Dwyer said...

Stef,

"What I do know for sure is that if last Winter had been as mild as it turned out to be cold the media would have been full of it. With no end of lobbyist spokespeople seeking to attach that mildness to MMGW"

True enough. No single event can really be attributed to mmgw, just changes in patterns of events, and probably then only over fairly long periods (~30 years).

"I also think it's fair to say that all man made warming inputs over the last ten years appear to have been countered and suppressed by natural variability, which indicates that even if there is such a thing as MMGW it has played 2nd fiddle to natural factors over that time"

Well natural factors over 10 years are just weather noise - or at least, there's no evidence at all that anything other than weather noise is behind that trend. Again, because it's too short. If this keeps up for another few years it would be another story perhaps, or at least more surprising.

Also, don't forget, the trend described handily starts from a high point caused by El Nino and handily ends when La Nina is active to hold temperatures low.

paul said...

Well Frank, if it's a real problem, is anyone taking it seriously, or just taking advantage?
Predatory capitalism has been raging across the globe for the last 30 years, actively destroying any prospect of ground level reflection,let alone reform.

jon doy said...

@Frank

i have a slightly different problem with the situation, there's some incongruity between the claimed 'shilling' going on by paid energy company keyboard and media monkeys supposedly saying 'there's nothing wrong' and edf energy's recent tv adverts where they have some bloke saying "climate change is real"

now why would an energy company be pushing climate change i wonder ?

plus, edf cheerfully send out letters saying how much they "want to fight climate change" on the very same side of the very same page they remind you that there's nectar points to be earned for using more of the stuff

hmmmmmm, disingenous to say the least

and that's just a single example of the oh-so-oft repeated 'it's real' message, which might be well, good, and innocent, except it's not, it's about globalised fascism and anti human propaganda

as for the science, well, isn't water as a vapour a more powerful greenhouse gas than co2 ?

but i find that leaving the emotive talk of "tipping points" (something i used to be an adherent to - the whole 'precautionary principle' bit) and just looking at who's bigging this thing up, it stinks of global hegemony NWO type stuff

=

tax people for living [breathing]

demonise the victims of the elite and leave them, and their trillions unaffected

globalise government

(and with a nice sideline in obfuscating the real environmental disasters - the ones that energy companies and governments and the elite aren't always reminding us are "real")

paul said...

I may have been unfair last night, some people are doing things about it.
Al Gore's carbon trading
GWBushII's biofuel subsidies
And of course our prime minister is doing his bit, as vince cable pointed out:
Last week Gordon Brown spoke about the need to take action on the environment, but today he talked of airport expansion and a new generation of nuclear power stations

paul said...

And let's not forget our UK Minister for Climate Change and Waste Joan Ruddock

Anonymous said...

Global warming is cancelled!

http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_article.asp?id=21153&cid=39&cname=NBR

paul said...

Great stuff!
I can see peak oil moving up the agenda to fill the void

jon doy said...

yes, thanks for that, Anon :)

don't forget the real alien threat, Paul, it's REAL !! just like man made global warming

Stef said...

That Global Warming is Cancelled link in handy, bite-sized form

Stef said...

on the subjects of aliens and peak oil - how is oil supposed to be formed again?

were there ever many fish on Titan ?

Stef said...

... Space Lizards are, of course, real enough and a much more serious threat than sociopathic human elites but Space Fish just aren't credible imho