Met Office Weather Forecast for Summer 2007 (dated 11th April 2007)
The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office issued today, reveals that this summer is, yet again, likely to be warmer than normal.
Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.
They also suggest the chances of temperatures similar to those experienced in 2003 and 2006 are around 1 in 8.
The forecast for rainfall is less certain, and currently there are no indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly wet summer.
The Met Office forecast of global mean temperature for 2007 issued on 4 January 2007 in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, stated that 2007 is likely to be the year on record going back to 1850, beating the current record set in 1998.
Through the summer we can experience periods of very hot weather which has implications for people's health. The Met Office works extensively with the Department of Health (DoH) to raise awareness of how we can protect ourselves in hot weather.
Each summer the Met Office and DoH operate a Heat-Health programme aimed at alleviating the effects of the hottest weather on vulnerable groups. During the 2003 heatwave there were more than 2,000 directly attributed in the UK and over 20,000 in France. Dr Tish Laing-Morton, Clinical Director at the Met Office is clear about what the benefits of the service are, saying: “The very old and the very young are particularly susceptible to extreme heat, particularly when very warm nights prevent the body from recuperating from very hot days. Also, people who suffer with breathing difficulties are likely to find their symptoms heightened.”
The forecast update below is based on latest indications for the remainder of summer (i.e. until the end of August).
Near average temperatures are likely to continue for the rest of July. However, during August there are signs of a change of weather type, with an indication that most regions will experience some periods with above average temperatures.
Above-average rainfall is likely to continue in most regions for the rest of July and at first in August. For the remainder of August current indicators favour a trend to drier-than-normal conditions for most of the UK.
Summer 2007 so far
The forecast issued on 30 May indicated a high probability that the UK mean summer temperatures would be above the 1971-2000 long-term average. The forecast also stated that weather patterns of the type that bring particularly hot weather to the UK were likely to be fewer than in some recent hot summers (e.g. 2003 and 2006).
The UK mean summer temperature so far stands at 0.4 °C warmer than the 1971-2000 average. The UK average daily maximum temperature has been close to average. Also, sunshine has been generally near or a little below normal though eastern Scotland has been particularly dull. Less than normal sunshine is consistent with a forecast for fewer hot weather types than in recent hot summers.
The forecast issued on 30 May indicated that rainfall would be more likely to be average or below average in southern UK; and more likely average or above average in northern UK. The characteristic feature of the summer so far has been the exceptionally high rainfall experienced in many regions. For England and Wales as a whole the summer so far is the wettest since 1839. Parts of north-west Scotland however have been drier than normal.
Extremely high amounts of rainfall, such as those experienced in many regions this summer, are not currently predictable at the long ranges addressed by seasonal forecasts. Within the bounds of the broad three-category classification used for seasonal forecasts (below, near, above normal), the rainfall forecast for the north is currently consistent with observed conditions. However, the outcome we considered more likely for the south (average or below average) is at odds with the above-normal amounts experienced.